^{Illustration by Bernard Chau}

Based on my personal opinion and requests from guests, I like to try predicting how the food and beverage industry will evolve in the coming year. Before, this often directed how our menus were planned and written, but being a freelance baker now makes things different. Instead of being in constant contact with guests, I liaise mostly with chefs from places ranging from the best five-star hotels in town to trendy restaurants at the end of the street. In the next 3 to 12 months, we will be seeing lots of new restaurant openings, giving me indirect information and insight into where the market is at and where it’s going.

Chefs are chasing what they believe their clientele will want in the next 18 to 24 months. Most bread that chefs ask us to bake isn’t all to be served in the bread basket, but to be incorporated in new dishes. I’ve met people who were supposed to recognise sourdough as a founding father of real food, only to ask why baguettes had a thicker and harder crust. I’ve also met people who were asked to give a soul to their food by their clients, using premium ingredients, to later be asked why prices were so high – which brings me to my first food and beverage trend of 2014:

 

1. You get what you pay for

There’s a fine line between paying insane prices for quasi-authentic food that turns out ordinary, and going to a restaurant where quality ingredients and a passionate chef will bring you food with a soul. You can’t walk into a Spanish restaurant and expect to have the exact food you had in Barcelona for the same price. However, value for money is very personal and it depends on what you’re looking for, and what you’re willing to pay, in a city where 90 per cent of food supplies is imported.

2. Local and organic vegetables

Local and organic foods are staying. If farms within our borders are producing great quality organic produce, sustainably harvested fish, poultry, eggs, etc., then the industry should support them. Of course, local supplies won’t be enough to sustain our city entirely, but the movement has to start somewhere. Visiting farmers’ markets helps to support the local producers, but the majority are selling vegetables. How about a fish or cheese monger and a butcher?

3. Real bread, ancient grains, and wheat alternatives

I’m not saying this because I’m a baker, but I feel that people are tired of bread from industrial plants. Ancient grains with flavours, nutrients and characters should be brought to the limelight as an alternative to wheat. The same goes for gluten-free bakeries, pasta and other baked goods. Gluten allergies are mainly provoked by the push of large industries to have a higher yield on crops, so we should go back to slow fermentation and ancient grain, which is full of flavour and nutrients, and get back to real bread.

4. Alternative locations

Rental prices in Hong Kong are the number one issue when opening a new eatery, especially for an independent group. A few weeks ago, a restaurant guide gave top awards to eateries outside of hotels: large restaurant groups have the financial power to get prime commercial real estate, leaving smaller independent ventures to settle in lesser-walked areas. Rental prices are unlikely to drop drastically in 2014, and I think we’ll see more concepts opening in alternative locations and buildings.

5. Pop-ups, private clubs and kitchens

Hongkongers are quickly bored with new dining concepts, which explains the constantly changing dining scene. Pop-ups are thriving, with European companies coming in to test their chances of survival in our ultra-competitive food and beverage market.

6. Homebrewed everything

Homebrewed drinks are on the rise, from classic beer, to the less common cola, lemonade, ginger ale and even hard liquor. Imported and local artisan brewers that process smaller batches are sought after with their products showcasing character, natural ingredients and uniqueness.

7. Healthy kids

Healthy eating starts with parents and food education. If healthier options are available but kids have been fed on a diet of junk food, the switch won’t happen. This change will continue to rise, but will take several years to be fully embraced.

8. Artisan butchers and steakhouses

With the rise of artisan bakeries and pastry shops, artisan butchers should be the next thing to blossom. I’m talking about a proper butchery and traiteur shop where you can source all sorts of meat specialties, sauces, terrines, roast chicken and more, very much like you would find in a European village.

9. Emergence of hidden flavours

Dishes and flavours that are thousand-year-old classics are being brought to the forefront in trendy eateries. In line with the next point on playful eating, the ethnic side of food (especially from Asia) is surfacing in just about every other dish I come across. From the small island of Indonesia to the heart of China, beautiful flavours are delighting palates.

10. Playful eating, portion size and ambiance

Several upcoming concepts are designed where the ambience and setting are meant to be convivial, communal and playful with smaller portions of superbly well executed dishes made with quality ingredients. People in Hong Kong want to have a good time and feel comfortable when they go out after a long day of hard work, so clever and playful eating with smaller portion sizes in a comfortable and welcoming atmosphere will be on the rise.

 

It’s difficult to predict what the next super food will be, and I won’t tell you that cupcakes and macarons will fade out in the next 12 months for the simple reason that there is no replacement that can pretend to take over their commercial stardom (did someone shout Cronut?) Forecasting trends is something very personal, but for now, let me get back to my oven and work on what may become the next big bread of 2014.